I spent the weekend digging through the latest consumer data, and the numbers tell two very different stories.

What consumers are saying:

1. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 81.9 in September, the lowest since 2014.
2. The University of Michigan's sentiment index came in at 46.3 in October, in the bottom 1% of its history.

What consumers are doing:

1. Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2%, and the Atlanta Fed has Q3 tracking at 3.6%.
2. Bank of America card spending was up 6.2% year over year in September, with growth across income levels.

So which is it?

Both. The "K-shaped" economy is part of the answer. Moody's estimates the top 10% of earners now drive nearly half of all consumer spending, fueled in large part by stock market gains. But the Minneapolis Fed and Bank of America's own data show the lower and middle of the K catching up more than the headlines suggest.

The rest of the answer is less about economics and more about how people feel. Nancy Lazar at Piper Sandler has shown how closely lower-income confidence tracks gas prices. And Sam Peltzman at the University of Chicago found that American happiness took the biggest hit in 50 years of data in 2020 and still hasn't recovered. People judge their lives against what they expected, not just what they have.

Why does a real estate guy care about any of this?

Because a great site is not enough.

In more than 900 openings, I've seen stores in perfect locations struggle and stores in "B" locations thrive. The difference was rarely the traffic count. It was whether the concept, the format, the price point and the timing matched the customer in that trade area.

That's why at TBF Strategic Realty Advisors, site criteria are only one part of the strategy we build for clients. We also look at:

- Who is actually spending, and where. Affluent trade areas are carrying a disproportionate share of discretionary spending right now.
- Where the brand sits on the barbell. Premium and value concepts are winning. The undifferentiated middle is getting squeezed.
- Occupancy cost against realistic sales. In a tight leasing market, a site has to work in the four-wall P&L, not just in committee.
- What could change. If top-tier spending is riding the stock market, a growth plan built on affluent trade areas should be stress-tested for a correction.

Location still matters. It always will. But the brands that grow well read the whole picture: the economy, the consumer, the competition and the real estate market, not just the map.

What indicators are you watching most closely as you plan for 2027?